With its community-wide charter since its inception, IARPA has introduced approximately 90 research programs in diverse areas, including quantum computing, neuroscience, cognitive psychology, sociology, power sources, antennas, as well as chemical and biological sensing. We are at the forefront of leveraging AI and machine learning (ML) to develop...
IARPA attracts world-class Program Managers (PMs) who bring exceptional imagination and proven expertise to address cross-community challenges. PMs are vital to the success of IARPA. They are more than just advocates for their program(s); they are the originators of the innovative concept at the heart of the program that they shepherd. IARPA...
Every day, the Intelligence Community (IC) labors to provide policymakers with insightful analysis to answer and inform on some of the toughest national security questions and issues. More often than not, the IC is able to provide ground-truth on seemingly murky problems that may otherwise not be discovered or explained. However, even with the...
Every day, around the world, trillions of words are sent via email, text, social media, and other means from billions of people to billions of others. And it’s probably safe to say that the vast majority of these messages merely include prosaic or routine language that is of little concern or interest to most people. However, some of this...
REASON aims to develop novel technologies that will enable intelligence analysts to substantially improve the evidence and reasoning in draft analytic reports. Intelligence analysts sort through huge amounts of often uncertain and conflicting information as they strive to answer intelligence questions. REASON will assist and enhance analysts’...
Entrepreneur Magazine - ...in 2011, [IARPA] launched a huge forecasting tournament for the public. At the beginning, there were five teams, and over the next four years, thousands of ordinary Joes and Janes would answer about 500 questions, like: Will North Korea launch a new multistage missile before May 10, 2014? Will Robert...
The goal of the Sirius Program is to create Serious Games to train participants and measure their proficiency in recognizing and mitigating the cognitive biases that commonly affect all types of intelligence analysis. The research objective is to experimentally manipulate variables in Virtual Learning Environments (VLE) to determine whether and how...
The Multi-Qubit Coherent Operations Program aims to resolve the technical challenges involved in fabricating and operating multiple qubits in close proximity. The main themes of the program include qubit fabrication and yield; cross talk within the multi-qubit system; incorporation of the controls necessary to operate multiple qubits; coupling qubi...
The goal of the ForeST Program is to develop and test methods for generating accurate forecasts for significant science and technology (S&T) milestones, by combining the judgments of many experts. The ForeST Program seeks technical innovations in the following areas: a) efficient elicitation and aggregation of...
The goal of the ACE Program is to dramatically enhance the accuracy, precision, and timeliness of intelligence forecasts for a broad range of event types, through the development of advanced techniques that elicit, weight, and combine the judgments of many intelligence analysts. The ACE Program seeks technical innovations in the...
Bloomberg Business Week - People who get paid to make forecasts say there’s only a 9% chance that there will be a widely available vaccine for Covid-19 before next April. That’s according to Good Judgment Inc., a company that maintains a global network of forecasters to make predictions for clients based on publicly...
Dr. Steven Rieber joined IARPA in 2014. In his current assignment as a Program Manager, Dr. Rieber focuses on areas of scientific research that include forecasting and rational judgment and decision-making. He has led several IARPA programs including ACE, CREATE, FOCUS, MOSIAC, and HFC. Prior to joining IARPA, Dr....
Standoff chemical detection is a ubiquitous need across the Intelligence Community for applications ranging from forensic crime scene analysis, to border and facility protection, to stockpile and production monitoring. The SILMARILS program aimed to develop a portable system for accurate real-time standoff detection and identification of trace...
The HFC program developed and tested hybrid geopolitical forecasting systems, which integrated human and machine forecasting components to create accurate, flexible, and scalable forecasting capabilities. Intelligence analysts are faced with the daunting task of developing intellectually rigorous, well-supported assessments of geopolitical events...
The Atlantic - ...In 2005, [Philip] Tetlock published his results, and they caught the attention of the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity, or IARPA, a government organization that supports research on the U.S. intelligence community’s most difficult challenges. In 2011, IARPA launched a four-year prediction tournament in which...
Federal News Network - The intelligence community, like every other federal and private sector organization, suffers from the common employee disease of “linkclickitis.” It’s described by doctors as a condition where the employee has an uncontrollable urge to press the left button on the mouse while hovering over a link sent by email....
PC Magazine - US national intelligence officials are looking for a few good geeks to participate in its Mercury Challenge, which is in search of machine learning tools that will ingest and analyze publicly available data and "forecast the future." Whereas DARPA at the Defense Department supports the warfighter, the Intelligence...
WASHINGTON – The Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity, within the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, announced that forecasting data collected during IARPA’s Aggregative Contingent Estimation—ACE—program by team Good Judgment is now available for use by the public and the research...
