Summary
The goal of the ForeST Program is to develop and test methods for generating accurate forecasts for significant science and technology (S&T) milestones, by combining the judgments of many experts. The ForeST Program seeks technical innovations in the following areas: a) efficient elicitation and aggregation of judgments using combinatorial prediction markets; b) generation of S&T forecasting questions from indicators within the scientific and patent literatures; c) methods for crowdsourcing question development and resolution with over 10,000 scientists and engineers, globally. As part of this program, ForeST-funded researchers manage the world’s largest S&T forecasting tournament, SciCast, generating public forecasts for hundreds of real-world S&T events. The ForeST Program directly leverages the programmatic and technical achievements of IARPA’s ACE and FUSE programs.
