IARPA Announces Publication of Data from the Good Judgment Project

WASHINGTON – The Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity, within the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, announced that forecasting data collected during IARPA’s Aggregative Contingent Estimation—ACE—program by team Good Judgment is now available for use by the public and the research community via https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataverse/gjp. This data set includes millions of forecasts made by participants over the four years of the ACE forecasting competition and led to many noteworthy findings regarding the accuracy of human judgment about geopolitical events, including the finding that averaging the most historically accurate forecasters outperforms individual forecasters.