Bloomberg Business Week - People who get paid to make forecasts say there’s only a 9% chance that there will be a widely available vaccine for Covid-19 before next April. That’s according to Good Judgment Inc., a company that maintains a global network of forecasters to make predictions for clients based on publicly...
Dr. Steven Rieber joined IARPA in 2014. In his current assignment as a Program Manager, Dr. Rieber focuses on areas of scientific research that include forecasting and rational judgment and decision-making. He has led several IARPA programs including REASON, ACE, CREATE, FOCUS, MOSAIC, and HFC. Prior to joining...
Standoff chemical detection is a ubiquitous need across the Intelligence Community for applications ranging from forensic crime scene analysis, to border and facility protection, to stockpile and production monitoring. The SILMARILS program aimed to develop a portable system for accurate real-time standoff detection and identification of trace...
The HFC program developed and tested hybrid geopolitical forecasting systems, which integrated human and machine forecasting components to create accurate, flexible, and scalable forecasting capabilities. Intelligence analysts are faced with the daunting task of developing intellectually rigorous, well-supported assessments of geopolitical events...
The Atlantic - ...In 2005, [Philip] Tetlock published his results, and they caught the attention of the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity, or IARPA, a government organization that supports research on the U.S. intelligence community’s most difficult challenges. In 2011, IARPA launched a four-year prediction tournament in which...
Federal News Network - The intelligence community, like every other federal and private sector organization, suffers from the common employee disease of “linkclickitis.” It’s described by doctors as a condition where the employee has an uncontrollable urge to press the left button on the mouse while hovering over a link sent by email....
PC Magazine - US national intelligence officials are looking for a few good geeks to participate in its Mercury Challenge, which is in search of machine learning tools that will ingest and analyze publicly available data and "forecast the future." Whereas DARPA at the Defense Department supports the warfighter, the Intelligence...
WASHINGTON – The Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity, within the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, announced that forecasting data collected during IARPA’s Aggregative Contingent Estimation—ACE—program by team Good Judgment is now available for use by the public and the research...
