Hybrid Forecasting Competition (HFC)

The Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) will host a Proposers’ Day Conference for the Hybrid Forecasting Competition (HFC) Program on February 3, 2016, in anticipation of the release of a new solicitation in support of the Program. The Conference will be held from 9:00AM-4:00PM in the Washington, DC metropolitan area. The purpose of the Conference will be to provide introductory information on HFC and the research problems that the Program aims to address, to respond to questions from potential proposers, and to provide a forum for potential proposers to present their capabilities for teaming opportunities.

This announcement serves as a pre-solicitation notice and is issued solely for information and planning purposes. The Proposers’ Day Conference does not constitute a formal solicitation for proposals or proposal abstracts. Conference attendance is voluntary and is not required to propose to future solicitations (if any) associated with this Program. IARPA will not provide reimbursement for any costs incurred to participate in this Proposers’ Day.

Background and Program Goals

HFC aims to improve forecasting by combining the benefits of human- and machine-driven forecasting systems. HFC will develop and test methods to optimize human/machine collaboration for the creation of maximally accurate geopolitical and geoeconomic forecasts. Intelligence analysts, along with professionals in other operational forecasting disciplines, wrestle with the problem of how human judgments should be combined/weighted with machine model-based forecasts so as to maximize the accuracy of the resultant probability forecasts. The methods HFC will develop should help the human analyst navigate this challenge and will likely be diverse in form. Methods developed in HFC may include but are not limited to (1) protocols that train human forecasters to optimally combine/weight human and machine judgments/forecasts; (2) new predictive models that incorporate both machine data and human judgments; and (3) algorithmic forecasting agents that interact with human forecasters/forecasts inside crowdsourced forecasting platforms. The geopolitical and geoeconomic events on which HFC methods will be developed will be discrete choice/probabilistic and continuous quantity forecasting problems.

The HFC Program expects to draw upon the strengths of academia and industry through collaborative teaming. It is anticipated that teams will be multidisciplinary and might include social and behavioral scientists, experts in operational forecasting disciplines (e.g. finance, macroeconomics, meteorology, geopolitics), computer scientists/software developers, and methodologists (statisticians/psychometricians/polimetricians/econometricians).

Registration Information

Attendees must register no later than COB on January 27, 2016 at http://events.SignUp4.com/HFCProposersDay_Registration. Directions to the Conference facility and other materials will be provided upon registration. No walk-in registrations will be allowed.

Due to space limitations, attendance will be limited to the first 250 registrants. If there are more registrants than available seats, priority will be given to the first two registrants from each organization. All attendees will be required to present government-issued photo identification to enter the event. Non-U.S. citizens will be required to present passports.

Additional Information

The afternoon will include unclassified presentations and poster sessions to provide an opportunity for attendees to present their organizations’ capabilities and to explore teaming arrangements. Attendees who wish to present organization capabilities for teaming opportunities may submit a request through the registration website. Details on the presentation and poster formats, and the procedure for submitting a request to present, will be provided after approval to register for the Conference has been granted. Time available for presentations and space available for posters will be limited. Therefore, presentations will be limited to the first 15 registered respondents who request an oral presentation, and posters will be limited to the first 15 registered respondents who request a poster presentation. These presentations are not intended to solicit feedback from the Government, and Government personnel will not be present during the presentations. This Proposers’ Day is intended for participants who are eligible to compete on the anticipated BAA. Other Government Agencies, Federally Funded Research and Development Centers (FFRDCs), University Affiliated Research Centers (UARCs), or any other similar organizations that have a special relationship with the Government, that gives them access to privileged or proprietary information, or access to Government equipment or real property, will not be eligible to submit proposals to the anticipated BAA nor participate as team members under proposals submitted by eligible entities. While such entities are not prohibited from attending the Proposers’ Day, due to space limitations, preference will be given first to those organizations that are eligible to compete.

Questions concerning Conference and registration can be sent to dni-iarpa-events@iarpa.gov. Questions regarding the program can be sent to dni-iarpa-baa-16-02@iarpa.gov.

Contracting Office Address

Office of the Director of National Intelligence
Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity
Washington, DC 20511

Primary Point of Contact

Seth Goldstein
Program Manager