Prize Challenges

Geopolitical Forecasting Challenge 2 (GF Challenge 2)

We’re on a mission to improve the accuracy and timeliness of geopolitical forecasts by advancing the science of forecasting. Are you up to the challenge? The second Geopolitical Forecasting Challenge (GF Challenge 2) presents Solvers with questions ranging from political elections to disease outbreaks to macro-economic indicators and asks for innovative, programmatic solutions that can include any combination of human forecasts and their own data sources and models into accurate, timely forecasts. This is your chance to test and showcase your forecasting methods and prove yourself against other state-of-the-art methods. GF Challenge 2 offers Solvers the opportunity to advance your research, contribute to global security and humanitarian activities, and enhance the science of forecasting, as part of a collaborative community. And did we mention that up to $250,000 in prizes will be awarded?

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Who We Are: The Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA), within the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), focuses on high-risk, high-payoff research programs to tackle difficult challenges of the agencies and disciplines in the intelligence community. IARPA’s challenges invite experts from the broader research community to participate in IARPA research in a convenient, efficient, and non-contractual way.

Why this work is so important:  geopolitical forecasting provides strategic advantages in maintaining global security, predicting economic trends, and directing the need for humanitarian efforts. Embarcing non-traditional sources, encouraging novel approaches, and harnessing the collective community, we will increase the accuracy and accelerate the timeliness of geopolitical forecasting, while advancing the overall science of forecasting.

What We’re Doing: Existing methods of geopolitical forecasting include human judgment-intensive methods, such as prediction markets, and data-intensive approaches, such as statistical models, and this challenge seeks to push the limits of those methods to find new breakthroughs. GF Challenge 2 Solvers, participating as individuals or teams, will develop solutions capable of producing forecasts to a series of closed-ended questions that concern specific, objectively-verifiable geopolitical events with deadlines and locations. The Challenge provides questions and a real-time data stream of forecasts from a crowd of hundreds of human forecasters. Solvers are encouraged to use other data streams and their own data and models for the Challenge as well.

Who Should Participate: New perspectives can offer innovative insights. To that end we’re looking for solutions from individuals or teams who think they can help advance the science of forecasting, including forecasting enthusiasts, data scientists, computer programmers, economists, epidemiologists, and even – or especially – experts in disciplines we haven’t yet considered. The administration of the Challenge is automated and secured through an API that provides the forecasting questions and individual human forecasts and receives forecast submissions, so having at least one team member with programming or developer skills is essential for participation. Certain individuals and groups with existing agreements with IARPA may not be eligible for cash prizes, but you may be able to compete for standing on the leaderboard and other non-monetary incentives. Additional eligibility rules will be available closer to launch.

Why Should You Participate? This is your chance to test and showcase your forecasting skills and methods, and prove yourself against other state-of-the-art methods. GF Challenge 2 offers Solvers the opportunity to advance your research, contribute to global security and humanitarian activities, and enhance the science of forecasting, as part of a collaborative community, while competing for up to $250,000 in prizes. Throughout the Challenge, an online leaderboard will display Solvers’ rankings and accomplishments, giving you opportunities to have your work viewed and appreciated by leaders from industry, government, and academia.

When We’re Doing This: The Challenge will launch in May 15, 2019, so keep checking back for additional details. To receive updates or request more information, email gfchallenge@iarpa.gov.

When does pre-registration begin? April 2019
When does the Challenge launch? May 15, 2019
When does the Challenge end? November 2019
Where can I learn more about the Challenge & differences between the first GF Challenge and GF Challenge 2? www.iarpa.gov/challenges/gfchallenge2.html
How do I stay connected to get information on when the microsite and challenge registration opens? Join our mailing list at gfchallenge@iarpa.gov

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