Assuming superforecasting is required, the following results were found.

  • Superforecasting for the Farm

    Successful Farming How much is it humanly possible to forecast future events on your farm?...To improve your forecasting skills, join thousands of other aspiring superforecasters on Good Judgment Open .

    https://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/newsroom/iarpa-in-the-news/2016/876-superforecasting-for-the-farm
  • Superforecasting: How seemingly ordinary people can predict everything from world events to election results

    City A.M. The President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo was having a stressful time in 2013. A rebel militia had just taken control of Goma, a large province with a population of about a million people, and regional powers were putting pressure...

    https://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/newsroom/iarpa-in-the-news/2016/756-superforecasting-how-seemingly-ordinary-people-can-predict-everything-from-world-events-to-election-results
  • December's pick-of-the-month "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction"

    WITF Ten years ago, noted scholar Philip Tetlock gained international attention with a landmark study demonstrating that experts' predictions...For the past decade, Tetlock has worked on the Good Judgment Project, studying ordinary people who are able...

    https://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/newsroom/iarpa-in-the-news/2015/648-december-s-pick-of-the-month-superforecasting-the-art-and-science-of-prediction
  • Book Review: Superforecasting Sheds Light on the Art of Prediction

    Institutional Investor The investors and money managers who read Institutional Investor may be familiar with Philip Tetlock , a University of Pennsylvania professor of psychology and management....As part of the Good Judgment Project (GJP), which...

    https://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/newsroom/iarpa-in-the-news/2015/621-book-review-superforecasting-sheds-light-on-the-art-of-prediction
  • Superforecasting: a revolution in politics

    The Spectator Forecasts have been fundamental to mankind’s journey from a small tribe on the African savannah to a species that can sling objects across the solar system with extreme precision. In physics we have developed models that are extremely...

    https://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/newsroom/iarpa-in-the-news/2015/594-superforecasting-a-revolution-in-politics
  • Book excerpt: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

    Financial Post Doug not only beat the control group's "wisdom of the crowd," he surpassed it by more than 60 percent, meaning that he single-handedly exceeded the fourth-year performance target that IARPA set for multimillion-dollar research programs...

    https://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/newsroom/iarpa-in-the-news/2015/585-book-excerpt-superforecasting-the-art-and-science-of-prediction
  • Tetlock And Gardner, Superforecasting

    Seeking Alpha We all crave knowledge of the future. Is it going to rain this weekend? Where will the equity markets be in a year? Next week? Five minutes from now? Predictive models, many using big data and statistical algorithms, have begun making...

    https://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/newsroom/iarpa-in-the-news/2015/584-tetlock-and-gardner-superforecasting
  • Philip Tetlock: A Short Course in Superforecasting

    Edge This year, the psychologist and social scientist Philip E. Tetlock presented the findings based on his work on forecasting as part of the Good Judgment Project.

    https://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/newsroom/iarpa-in-the-news/2015/556-philip-tetlock-a-short-course-in-superforecasting
  • 'Superforecasting' Author -- Don't Dismiss Analysts Over Big Jobs Miss

    The Street The Good Judgment Project is a multi-year forecasting study that Tetlock co-leads with his wife, Barbara Mellers. The project studies tens of thousands of ordinary volunteers -- including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer and a...

    https://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/newsroom/iarpa-in-the-news/2015/603-superforecasting-author-don-t-dismiss-analysts-over-big-jobs-miss
  • Book review: 'Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction' by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner

    how, and under what conditions individuals can predict human events by reading Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner’s “Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction.” Tetlock, an academic based at the University of Pennsylvania, is one of the leaders...

    https://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/newsroom/iarpa-in-the-news/2015/628-book-review-superforecasting-the-art-and-science-of-prediction-by-philip-tetlock-and-dan-gardner
  • ‘Mindware’ and ‘Superforecasting’

    As I stood in line the lights suddenly dimmed throughout the store....But unlike “Mindware,” most of the material in “Superforecasting” is new, and includes a compendium of best practices for prediction. The book describes the findings of the Good...

    https://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/newsroom/iarpa-in-the-news/2015/617-mindware-and-superforecasting
  • Can Businesses Learn 'Superforecasting'? Easier Said Than Done

    Forbes How reliable are the forecasts of so-called “experts”? Not very, it turns out. About a decade ago, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock analyzed the predictions that almost 300 respected authorities in politics and economics made over two decades –...

    https://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/newsroom/iarpa-in-the-news/2015/598-can-businesses-learn-superforecasting-easier-said-than-done
  • Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE)

    Related Article(s) The NBA Finals Are Here. Even Superforecasters are Surprised Does Your Company Have Good Judgement? Superforecasting for the Farm Are You a Good Forecaster? The Good Judgment Project Needs You The Best Bet in Crowd Prediction How...

    https://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/research-programs/ace
  • Superforecaster's success raises the question: Why are most of us so bad at predicting things?

    Really good....Bill’s incredibly successful foray into forecasting started on a whim. He noticed the mention of a superforecasting tournament run by IARPA...

    https://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/newsroom/iarpa-in-the-news/2016/817-superforecaster-s-success-raises-the-question-why-are-most-of-us-so-bad-at-predicting-things
  • How to Become a 'Superforecaster'

    Daily Wealth The events in Paris last month have had me thinking a lot about an excellent new book I recently read: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction , by Phillip Tetlock....In the wake of that debacle, the intelligence community's...

    https://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/newsroom/iarpa-in-the-news/2015/650-how-to-become-a-superforecaster
  • How The Two Parties Are Horrible At Predicting the Future

    psychologist at the University of Pennsylvania) and his colleagues. The research is described in Dr. Tetlock’s book, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction.

    https://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/newsroom/iarpa-in-the-news/2015/623-how-the-two-parties-are-horrible-at-predicting-the-future
  • How to Predict the Future

    New York Magazine It’s called Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, and much of the book is based on a widely reported, 20-year study...in which superforecasters took a stab at estimating the probability of some kind of global future...

    https://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/newsroom/iarpa-in-the-news/2015/610-how-to-predict-the-future
  • Got One Way Of Looking At The World? It's Wrong

    Forbes It’s difficult, but not impossible, to predict the future. In Superforecasting, Philip Tetlock profiles a small group of people who were able to successfully predict geopolitical events. More on this in a minute....And now for the backstory. The...

    https://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/newsroom/iarpa-in-the-news/2015/609-got-one-way-of-looking-at-the-world-it-s-wrong
  • Michael Mauboussin: Sharpening Your Forecasting Skills

    the quality of your forecasts, measured as the distance between forecasts and outcomes, by 60 percent? Interested? Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner is a book that shows how a small number of...

    https://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/newsroom/iarpa-in-the-news/2015/595-michael-mauboussin-sharpening-your-forecasting-skills
  • The Ability to Predict the Future Is Just Another Skill

    Inverse Phil Tetlock believes we can predict the future — we, us, anyone. In his new book, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction , the Wharton management professor and psychologist makes the case that futurists are skilled, not special....

    https://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/newsroom/iarpa-in-the-news/2015/592-the-ability-to-predict-the-future-is-just-another-skill

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