IARPA in the News

The Economist

In the late 1980s one of us (Philip Tetlock) launched such a tournament. It involved 284 economists, political scientists, intelligence analysts and journalists and collected almost 28,000 predictions. The results were startling. The average expert did only slightly better than random guessing. Even more disconcerting, experts with the most inflated views of their own batting averages tended to attract the most media attention. Their more self-effacing colleagues, the ones we should be heeding, often don’t get on to our radar screens.

That project proved to be a pilot for a far more ambitious tournament currently sponsored by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA), part of the American intelligence world. Over 5,000 forecasters have made more than 1m forecasts on more than 250 questions, from euro-zone exits to the Syrian civil war. Results are pouring in and they are revealing. We can discover who has better batting averages, not take it on faith; discover which methods of training promote accuracy, not just track the latest gurus and fads; and discover methods of distilling the wisdom of the crowd....

NetworkWorld

Identifying people from video streams or boatloads of images can be a daunting task for humans and computers. But a 4-year development program set to start in April 2014 known as Janus aims to develop software and algorithms that erase those problems and could radically alter the facial recognition world as we know it. Funded by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence's "high-risk, high-payoff research" group, Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) Janus "seeks to improve face recognition performance using representations developed from real-world video and images instead of from calibrated and constrained collections."

USA Today

The U.S. intelligence community is pushing a leap forward in facial recognition software that will enable it to determine better the identity of people through a variety of photographs, video and other images. Called Janus, the program run by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Agency (IARPA), "seeks to improve face recognition performance using representations developed from real-world video and images instead of from calibrated and constrained collections.

Military & Aerospace Electronics

Artificial intelligence experts at the Siemens Corp. Corporate Research And Technology Division in Princeton, N.J., are joining those at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh and HRL Laboratories LLC in Malibu, Calif., on a military research project to unlock secrets in the nature of knowledge in an effort to improve tools and training available to intelligence analysts.

Washington Post

Several years ago, the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity, a think tank for the intelligence community, launched the Good Judgment Project. The idea is to use forecasting competitions to test the factors that lead analysts to make good predictions.

Military & Aerospace Electronics

Artificial intelligence experts at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh are joining those at HRL Laboratories LLC in Malibu, Calif., on a military research project to unlock secrets in the nature of knowledge in an effort to improve tools and training available to intelligence analysts.

Federal Computer Week

The intelligence community wants to develop superconducting supercomputers that could be potentially much faster and use far less energy than today's traditional supercomputers.