IARPA in the News

Defense One

There’s a new website in town that looks to crowdsource predictions about everything from drone delivery to the future price of BitCoins. The SciCast site, which researchers at George Mason University launched in December, allows users from around the world to make predictions and pose questions in order to forecast possible future events and technological breakthroughs. And it’s funded by the Director of National Intelligence’s Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity, or IARPA.

USA Today

Researchers tracking social media and Web searches have detected outbreaks of the flu and rare diseases in Latin America by up to two weeks before they were reported by local news media or government health agencies, a U.S. intelligence official told USA TODAY.

Working at a series of universities and companies around the country, the researchers are part of a program led by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Agency (IARPA) that is aimed at anticipating critical societal events, such as disease outbreaks, violent uprisings or economic crises before they appear in the news.

Geospatial Intelligence Forum Magazine

In the commercial world, retailers apply predictive analytics to customer behavior in order to maximize sales and profits, crunching data to find the right time to make the right offer to the right customer. Retailers have such a rich trove of historical customer data that, with the use of the latest technology, consumer behavior can be predicted with considerable accuracy.

C4ISR & Networks

The Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) wants to correct drift in its intelligence forecasting models.

In a new request for information, IARPA seeks methods to automatically detect and correct drift in forecasting models. Suitable methods would update models to take into account more historical data or current events, or when the assumptions underpinning the model change, such as contagion assumptions for an epidemiological model.


The Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity has kicked off a multi-year collaborative research effort to design new tools and work to help analysts solve complex problems.

IARPA launched the Strengthening Human Adaptive Reasoning and Problem-Solving project to further study cognitive skills in healthy and high-performing people, IARPA said Monday.

Bloomberg News

What are they thinking?

The intelligence community, it appears, is in the market for thinking caps.

In the interest of improving “reasoning and problem-solving,” the Office of the Director of National Intelligence has hired some high-level talent to conduct some research into the question of how sharper thinking might help out with the complex problems they face there.

Chicago Tribune

We announce the launch of SciCast, a federally funded research and development project run by George Mason University to develop new methods for improving the accuracy of science and technology forecasts.

SciCast invites scientists, technologists, and technology watchers around the world to forecast key science and technology trends, and contribute relevant forecasting questions.