IARPA in the News


A small group of people have a surprising knack for correctly predicting the course of world events – and you could be one of them, says David Robson.

The Global Change Forum

Global change alters the distribution of species on Earth. It has, it will. Biogeographers typically discuss these shifts in light of conservation, biological invasion and agriculture. However, these are not the only contexts in which the shifting geography of life matters.

Trajectory Magazine

SciCast, a research project led by George Mason University (GMU) and sponsored by the U.S. government aims to take forecasting and predictive analytics to the next level. As the largest crowdsourcing forecast project in science and technology, SciCast strives to predict the future outcomes of popular science and technology topics.

Intelligence Community News

The Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA), which operates under the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), issued a Request For Information (RFI) on May 30 that seeks information from companies that could examine the feasibility of using existing genomic databases to determine the “geographic provenance” of a metagenomic sample.

Wall Street Journal

In the future, virtual reality won't require strapping a bulky contraption to your head.

Instead, imagine stepping into an empty room and then suddenly seeing life-size, 3-D images of people and furniture. Or looking down at a smartwatch and seeing virtual objects float and bounce above the wrist, like the holographic Princess Leia beamed by R2-D2 in the movie "Star Wars."


Fortunately, recent investments by the U.S. intelligence community in developing innovative means to forecast international political events suggest that Moneyball-style methods could help improve foresight and, therefore, American foreign policy. The Intelligence Advanced Research Project Activity’s (IARPA) ACE Program focuses on using methods such as crowd surveys, prediction markets, algorithms, and teams to predict international political and economic events relevant for U.S. foreign policy.


A project backed by a US intelligence agency might soon make it much easier to predict which technologies will one day become game-changers. Results revealed this week by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) suggest that clues in the wordings of, and relationships between, scientific papers and patents could foretell research successes.