IARPA in the News

Intelligence Community News

The Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) seeks information on the availability and development of electronic design automation (EDA) tools for superconducting electronics (SCE). Interested contractors should note that the deadline for responses is 4:00pm EST February 13, 2015.

Philadelphia Inquirer

...This counterintuitive truth has fascinated social scientists, psychologists, and statisticians for more than a century. But it was not until four years ago that the nation's intelligence community decided to focus its attention - and largesse - on figuring out how to take advantage of what has come to be known as "the wisdom of the crowd."

Hoping to improve its accuracy forecasting critical world events, the federal Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) organized a tournament.

CHIPS

The Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) is sponsoring the Good Judgment Project, a four-year research study organized as part of a government-sponsored forecasting tournament. Thousands of people around the world predict global events. Their collective forecasts are surprisingly accurate.

The Good Judgment research team is based in the University of Pennsylvania and the University of California Berkeley. The project is led by psychologists Philip Tetlock, author of Expert Political Judgment, Barbara Mellers, an expert on judgment and decision-making, and Don Moore, an expert on overconfidence. Other team members are experts in psychology, economics, statistics, and computer science and interface design.

Microwave Journal

Cambridge Instruments, a division of MagiQ Technologies Inc., introduced the QuantumWave 4000 series of PXIe based, RF and microwave sources that provide high-quality CW signals at frequencies up to 12 GHz and low size, weight and power (SWaP).

All three synthesizers in the QuantumWave 4000 Series PXIe CW synthesizers support DARPA/IARPA quantum computer development that requires multiple microwave signals in a design that is smaller, lighter and more energy efficient than traditional bench instruments.

Washington Post

How well do people make intuitive predictions? Researchers say the answer is disappointing. Medical diagnoses are sometimes wrong, economic forecasts are often mistaken, and many stock market pickers generate returns that fall below the market average. Is this also true with geopolitical forecasts? From instability in the Middle East to the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine to continuing concern about economic and security implications of the rise of China, understanding what is most likely to happen – and why – is an issue of vital interest for the U.S. government, as well as other governments and companies around the world. Yet, one long-term study showed that people were frequently hard-pressed to beat simple actuarial models even in areas of their own expertise.

What can we do to improve such predictions? Could we improve accuracy by bringing forecasters together, training them, taking advantage of the wisdom of crowds and applying other insights from the decision sciences? We decided to try, working with an interdisciplinary group of scholars, to improve geopolitical forecasting accuracy as part of a multi-year forecasting tournament funded by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA). IARPA, the experimental research and development arm of the intelligence community, wanted to find new ways to generate accurate forecasts. They selected five university and industry programs to compete to find the best possible ways of identifying better forecasters, eliciting predictions and aggregating predictions across forecasters.

The Almanac

An experiment organized by the national intelligence community and set to end this year is attempting to demonstrate that reliable forecasts can be made about economic and geopolitical events. And that some people, including Woodside resident and investment adviser Bob Sawyer, are good enough at it to earn the title of super forecaster.

Mr. Sawyer is one of some 12,000 volunteers throughout the world participating in the Good Judgment Project. For the past four years, small teams of about a dozen people each have been competing for the honor of accurately answering yes-or-no questions like these...

These forecasting tournaments, with about 100 questions a year, are sponsored by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA), which is overseen by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. IARPA, with its numerous and varied programs, may be at the cutting edge of advances in intelligence gathering and analysis.

Military & Aerospace Electronics

U.S. intelligence experts are ready to kick off a program to find ways of forecasting cyber warfare attacks and other cyber security issues to assist cyber defenders with the earliest possible modes of detection.

Officials of the U.S. Intelligence Advanced Projects Agency (IARPA) in Washington, say they soon will release a formal solicitation for the Cyber-attack Automated Unconventional Sensor Environment (CAUSE) program.