IARPA in the News

Harvard Business Review

So what is the secret to making better forecasts? From 1984 to 2004 Tetlock tracked political pundits’ ability to predict world events, culminating in his 2006 book Expert Political Judgment. He found that overall, his study subjects weren’t very good forecasters, but a subset did perform better than random chance. Those people stood out not for their credentials or ideology but for their style of thinking. They rejected the idea that any single force determines an outcome. They used multiple information sources and analytical tools and combined competing explanations for a given phenomenon. Above all, they were allergic to certainty....Superforecasting describes Tetlock’s work since. In 2011 he and his colleagues entered a prediction tournament sponsored by the U.S. government’s Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity.

Signal Magazine

Four teams will share a grand prize of $110,000 for their work on the speech recognition challenge Automatic Speech Recognition in Reverberant Environments, or ASpIRE. The winning teams are from Johns Hopkins University, Raytheon BBN Technologies, the Institute for Infocomm Research and Brno University of Technology, according to the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA), within the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.


Quantum computers are "as different from regular computers as humans are from jellyfish." While traditional computers encode information in classical bits that are in well-defined states - on or off, zero or one - quantum computers rely on quantum bits (qubits) that exhibit the ghostly superpositions typical of quantum physics - zero and one, on and off at the same time....Recently, the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA), the research arm of US intelligence, launched a research program to overcome the current practical limitations of quantum computing.


In January 2012 Intel purchased the InfiniBand product line from QLogic for 125 million US dollars in order to fulfil its promise of developing exascale technology by 2018. Then in February 2013, the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity started Cryogenic Computer Complexity (C3) program which envisions a new generation of superconducting supercomputers that operate at exascale speeds based on Superconducting logic. In December 2014 it announced a multi-year contract with International Business Machines, Raytheon BBN Technologies and Northrop Grumman to develop the technologies for C3 program.


The School of Public Health out of the University of Maryland (UMD) received a $5 million grant from the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) this month to support non-invasive tests related to influenza.


It is the intelligence community's job to predict the unpredictable and IARPA's job to make the investments necessary for such clairvoyance.


In 2011, the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) — the US intelligence community's equivalent of DARPA — announced a contest. Researchers were invited to submit proposals on how they might go about developing a better way to predict future events.