IARPA in the News


Phil Tetlock believes we can predict the future — we, us, anyone. In his new book, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, the Wharton management professor and psychologist makes the case that futurists are skilled, not special. Normal people can make boggling accurate predictions if they just know how to go about it right and how to practice.


Listen live on Wednesday at 1:00 pm. The participants are average citizens: school teachers, waiters, pharmacists, perhaps even your neighbor. By day they work and pay their bills, but when they return home, things change. These elite individuals go to work forecasting the outcomes of global events (sometimes years into the future), all at the direction of a little-known government intelligence agency called IARPA.

The Maine Edge

‘Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction’ Ever since mankind has grasped the concept of time, we have been trying to predict the future....But over the course of Tetlock’s years of study by way of his ongoing Good Judgment Project, he uncovered an astonishing truth. Yes, most people have no real notion of how to predict the outcome of future events.

Management Today

Superforecasting is a very good book. In fact it is essential reading - which I have never said in any of my previous MT reviews. In 2003, after the invasion of Iraq, the American Intelligence Community (IC) was shocked by how wrong it had been about Saddam having weapons of mass destruction....It set up a new agency, IARPA, which in 2011 commissioned a tournament of forecasters, tasked with making daily predictions looking between one month and one year into the future, covering 500 events, over four years.


OAK RIDGE, Tenn., Sept. 29, 2015 - Lock Data Solutions has licensed a technology from the Department of Energy's Oak Ridge National Laboratory designed to protect a company's data from internal and external threats....Lock Data Solutions LLC, located in New York City, is a technology company dedicated to bringing cutting edge solutions to cloud and network cybersecurity. Development of this technology was made possible by funding from the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity.


The National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency has made a point of hitching its operations to the recent boom in open source data. The intelligence community’s mapping agency has in the last few months released a software toolkit for crowdsourcing on GitHub...“One of the virtues of open source is that it’s especially relevant for the kinds of events that the intelligence community cares about that don’t involve adversaries, in the traditional sense,” said IARPA Director Jason Matheny.

Financial Post

Doug not only beat the control group's "wisdom of the crowd," he surpassed it by more than 60 percent, meaning that he single-handedly exceeded the fourth-year performance target that IARPA set for multimillion-dollar research programs that were free to use every trick in the forecasting textbook for improving accuracy.