IARPA in the News

The Street

The Good Judgment Project is a multi-year forecasting study that Tetlock co-leads with his wife, Barbara Mellers. The project studies tens of thousands of ordinary volunteers -- including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer and a former ballroom dancer -- who are asked to forecast global events. Among them, some are far better than average at predicting the direction of events.

Defense One

The CIA will stand up its new Directorate for Digital Innovation on Thursday. It’s the first directorate the agency has added since 1963 and the biggest change to America’s key spy service since before the moon landing....What does that mean? In describing how the directorate will provide anticipatory intelligence, Hallman highlighted a 2011 program sponsored by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Agency, or IARPA, called Open Source Indicators, or OSI.


Introduction: The Bad News and the Good News What if you had the opportunity to learn how to improve the quality of your forecasts, measured as the distance between forecasts and outcomes, by 60 percent? Interested? Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner is a book that shows how a small number of “superforecasters” achieved that level of skill....An agency within the community, Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA), was assembled to pursue high-risk research into how to improve American intelligence.

The Washington Post

In the weeks surrounding the signing of the nuclear agreement with Iran, American pundits from across the political spectrum offered opinions on the outcome of the deal that were similar in one respect: their confidence....Funded by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity, the intelligence community’s equivalent to DARPA, the tournaments required competitors — volunteers drawn from a wide range of careers, all with an amateur interest in politics — to make thousands of forecasts.


Phil Tetlock believes we can predict the future — we, us, anyone. In his new book, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, the Wharton management professor and psychologist makes the case that futurists are skilled, not special. Normal people can make boggling accurate predictions if they just know how to go about it right and how to practice.


Listen live on Wednesday at 1:00 pm. The participants are average citizens: school teachers, waiters, pharmacists, perhaps even your neighbor. By day they work and pay their bills, but when they return home, things change. These elite individuals go to work forecasting the outcomes of global events (sometimes years into the future), all at the direction of a little-known government intelligence agency called IARPA.

The Maine Edge

‘Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction’ Ever since mankind has grasped the concept of time, we have been trying to predict the future....But over the course of Tetlock’s years of study by way of his ongoing Good Judgment Project, he uncovered an astonishing truth. Yes, most people have no real notion of how to predict the outcome of future events.