IARPA in the News


U.S. intelligence agencies are in the business of predicting the future, but no one has systematically evaluated the accuracy of those predictions—until now. The intelligence community’s cutting-edge research and development agency...The Office for Anticipating Surprise at the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) is a place where crystal balls come in the form of software, tournaments and throngs of people.


On October 20, 2015, the White House announced a new grand challenge that aims to "Create a new type of computer that can proactively interpret and learn...The 10-year initiative was launched in 2013 and is a massive collaborative effort between a five government agencies – the NIH, NSF, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, Food and Drug Administration, and Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity – and a multitude of foundations, institutes, universities, and industry partners.

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Philip Tetlock, who teaches psychology, business and political science at the University of California, Berkeley, is also the author of “Expert Political...The GJP is run in collaboration with the U.S. Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity and was a participant of the organization’s Aggregative Contingent Estimation program.



The Paris attacks did more than reveal the growing capabilities of the Islamic State to carry out...But the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Agency (IARPA)—the high-tech research arm of the U.S. intelligence community—has started several programs focused on the use of big data to solve this and other challenges facing the intelligence and homeland security communities.



I have seen the future, and that’s official. The Good Judgment Project, a 5-year-old government-funded exercise...After that last debacle became apparent in the post-invasion years, a branch of the IC, the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity, agreed to fund a number of private researchers to run tournaments that enlisted volunteers to do their best to answer fairly tricky questions about future world events.*


Despite indications that robots and autonomous machines could replace humans for many duties on the battlefield...That somewhat surprising result supports the popular theory that if you combine “a mediocre human player with a mediocre chess computer, that combination can beat any grandmaster and any top-of-the-art chess computer,” Jason Matheny, director of the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity said at the recent 2015 Defense One Summit.



Here is a sample question for prospective financial, business or supply chain analysts, “how many piano tuners are there in Chicago?”...Subsequently, the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) agency sponsored research to improve how the intelligence community forecast global political and economic trends.