IARPA in the News



I have seen the future, and that’s official. The Good Judgment Project, a 5-year-old government-funded exercise...After that last debacle became apparent in the post-invasion years, a branch of the IC, the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity, agreed to fund a number of private researchers to run tournaments that enlisted volunteers to do their best to answer fairly tricky questions about future world events.*


Despite indications that robots and autonomous machines could replace humans for many duties on the battlefield...That somewhat surprising result supports the popular theory that if you combine “a mediocre human player with a mediocre chess computer, that combination can beat any grandmaster and any top-of-the-art chess computer,” Jason Matheny, director of the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity said at the recent 2015 Defense One Summit.



Here is a sample question for prospective financial, business or supply chain analysts, “how many piano tuners are there in Chicago?”...Subsequently, the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) agency sponsored research to improve how the intelligence community forecast global political and economic trends.

SC Magazine

In a move to accelerate innovation in cybersecurity research and development, the White House has recruited Greg Shannon, a senior member of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers...Shannon has been at the CERT division at CMU since 2010 where he led cybersecurity projects with the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Agency and the Department of Homeland Security.


Can the wisdom of crowds make more accurate predictions than top intelligence experts? Philip E Tetlock, a University of Pennsylvania political scientist, set up the Good Judgment Project in 2011 in order to find out. Funded by the US government, the programme identified a group of “superforecasters” who, despite possessing no particular expertise nor access to any secret information, have shown remarkable proficiency in answering big geopolitical questions – such as whether Serbia would be granted European Union candidacy by the end of 2011, or whether Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria would survive in 2012.


While advancements in big data analytics are becoming increasingly important in helping humans understand vast quantities of data, there are fundamental challenges that could limit future development to only incremental advancements....Jason Matheny, director of the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity, outlined three areas that need further development before they can make a difference in big data analytics: high-performance computing, machine learning and causality.

The Brooklyn Rail

Could anyone have predicted in June that Donald Trump would lead the race for Republican presidential nominee—in October?...Tetlock further tested this theory through a forecasting tournament sponsored by the Intelligence Advanced Research Project Activity (IARPA), a federal agency that aims to improve the U.S. intelligence community.