IARPA in the News 2015

The Washington Post

In the weeks surrounding the signing of the nuclear agreement with Iran, American pundits from across the political spectrum offered opinions on the outcome of the deal that were similar in one respect: their confidence....Funded by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity, the intelligence community’s equivalent to DARPA, the tournaments required competitors — volunteers drawn from a wide range of careers, all with an amateur interest in politics — to make thousands of forecasts.

Inverse

Phil Tetlock believes we can predict the future — we, us, anyone. In his new book, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, the Wharton management professor and psychologist makes the case that futurists are skilled, not special. Normal people can make boggling accurate predictions if they just know how to go about it right and how to practice.

wnpr

Listen live on Wednesday at 1:00 pm. The participants are average citizens: school teachers, waiters, pharmacists, perhaps even your neighbor. By day they work and pay their bills, but when they return home, things change. These elite individuals go to work forecasting the outcomes of global events (sometimes years into the future), all at the direction of a little-known government intelligence agency called IARPA.

The Maine Edge

‘Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction’ Ever since mankind has grasped the concept of time, we have been trying to predict the future....But over the course of Tetlock’s years of study by way of his ongoing Good Judgment Project, he uncovered an astonishing truth. Yes, most people have no real notion of how to predict the outcome of future events.

Management Today

Superforecasting is a very good book. In fact it is essential reading - which I have never said in any of my previous MT reviews. In 2003, after the invasion of Iraq, the American Intelligence Community (IC) was shocked by how wrong it had been about Saddam having weapons of mass destruction....It set up a new agency, IARPA, which in 2011 commissioned a tournament of forecasters, tasked with making daily predictions looking between one month and one year into the future, covering 500 events, over four years.