IARPA in the News 2015

The Stute

There are two big geopolitical forecasting-tournament data sets, one linked to Expert Political Judgment, summarizing tournaments that ran from 1985–2002, and the other linked to GJP (Good Judgment Project), otherwise known as the IARPA (Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Agency) tournament, which ran from 2011–2015.

Independant Voter News

On Sunday, October 25, 2015, CNN aired a story by Fareed Zakaria about research on expert predictions. The research that Dr. Zakaria discussed was conducted by social scientist Philip Tetlock (a psychologist at the University of Pennsylvania) and his colleagues. The research is described in Dr. Tetlock’s book, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction.

Penn Current

Penn Integrates Knowledge University Professors Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers have spent decades researching the myriad complexities inherent in forecasting future events....In response to this inadequacy, Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA), the research arm of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, planned a five-year forecasting tournament to identify the factors that measurably reduce bias and improve accuracy—two sides of the same coin.

Healthymemory's Blog

A previous healthy memory blog post, “Would You Rather Be Popular or Accurate,” summarized Philip Tetlock’s book, Expert Political Judgment. Tetlock summarized several decades of research on experts’ political predictions....This research was sponsored by the Intelligence Advanced Research Project Agency (IARPA).

Institutional Investor

The investors and money managers who read Institutional Investor may be familiar with Philip Tetlock, a University of Pennsylvania professor of psychology and management....As part of the Good Judgment Project (GJP), which Tetlock launched in 2011 with his research partner and wife, Barbara Mellers, volunteers made predictions on the basis of questions such as, "Will North Korea detonate a nuclear device before the end of the year?