IARPA in the News 2015

Intelligence Community News

The Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) seeks information on the availability and development of electronic design automation (EDA) tools for superconducting electronics (SCE). Interested contractors should note that the deadline for responses is 4:00pm EST February 13, 2015.

Philadelphia Inquirer

...This counterintuitive truth has fascinated social scientists, psychologists, and statisticians for more than a century. But it was not until four years ago that the nation's intelligence community decided to focus its attention - and largesse - on figuring out how to take advantage of what has come to be known as "the wisdom of the crowd."

Hoping to improve its accuracy forecasting critical world events, the federal Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) organized a tournament.

CHIPS

The Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) is sponsoring the Good Judgment Project, a four-year research study organized as part of a government-sponsored forecasting tournament. Thousands of people around the world predict global events. Their collective forecasts are surprisingly accurate.

The Good Judgment research team is based in the University of Pennsylvania and the University of California Berkeley. The project is led by psychologists Philip Tetlock, author of Expert Political Judgment, Barbara Mellers, an expert on judgment and decision-making, and Don Moore, an expert on overconfidence. Other team members are experts in psychology, economics, statistics, and computer science and interface design.

Microwave Journal

Cambridge Instruments, a division of MagiQ Technologies Inc., introduced the QuantumWave 4000 series of PXIe based, RF and microwave sources that provide high-quality CW signals at frequencies up to 12 GHz and low size, weight and power (SWaP).

All three synthesizers in the QuantumWave 4000 Series PXIe CW synthesizers support DARPA/IARPA quantum computer development that requires multiple microwave signals in a design that is smaller, lighter and more energy efficient than traditional bench instruments.

Washington Post

How well do people make intuitive predictions? Researchers say the answer is disappointing. Medical diagnoses are sometimes wrong, economic forecasts are often mistaken, and many stock market pickers generate returns that fall below the market average. Is this also true with geopolitical forecasts? From instability in the Middle East to the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine to continuing concern about economic and security implications of the rise of China, understanding what is most likely to happen – and why – is an issue of vital interest for the U.S. government, as well as other governments and companies around the world. Yet, one long-term study showed that people were frequently hard-pressed to beat simple actuarial models even in areas of their own expertise.

What can we do to improve such predictions? Could we improve accuracy by bringing forecasters together, training them, taking advantage of the wisdom of crowds and applying other insights from the decision sciences? We decided to try, working with an interdisciplinary group of scholars, to improve geopolitical forecasting accuracy as part of a multi-year forecasting tournament funded by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA). IARPA, the experimental research and development arm of the intelligence community, wanted to find new ways to generate accurate forecasts. They selected five university and industry programs to compete to find the best possible ways of identifying better forecasters, eliciting predictions and aggregating predictions across forecasters.