IARPA in the News 2015

Daily Wealth

The events in Paris last month have had me thinking a lot about an excellent new book I recently read: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, by Phillip Tetlock....In the wake of that debacle, the intelligence community's research arm (IARPA, or the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity) sponsored a massive forecasting tournament.


Ten years ago, noted scholar Philip Tetlock gained international attention with a landmark study demonstrating that experts' predictions...For the past decade, Tetlock has worked on the Good Judgment Project, studying ordinary people who are able to sift through trends and seemingly unrelated information to draw more accurate conclusions about upcoming events than experts in their field.


Most of the world was blindsided three years ago when the democratically elected president of Paraguay was unseated in a parliamentary coup that unnerved leaders across the globe. It was a surprise to most of the world, but not all of it....For example, the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) seeks technology that would warn of significant cyber events before they occur.



U.S. intelligence agencies are in the business of predicting the future, but no one has systematically evaluated the accuracy of those predictions—until now. The intelligence community’s cutting-edge research and development agency...The Office for Anticipating Surprise at the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) is a place where crystal balls come in the form of software, tournaments and throngs of people.


On October 20, 2015, the White House announced a new grand challenge that aims to "Create a new type of computer that can proactively interpret and learn...The 10-year initiative was launched in 2013 and is a massive collaborative effort between a five government agencies – the NIH, NSF, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, Food and Drug Administration, and Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity – and a multitude of foundations, institutes, universities, and industry partners.