IARPA in the News 2015


Over the years there have been numerous stories highlighting the generally poor record so called experts have in predicting major events looming on the horizon. For the past few years a competition has been run by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) whereby university teams are invited to try and improve the art of forecasting major global events. One of the most successful entrants has been the team from Wharton. Barbara Mellers led the team and she believes their success is down to a number of factors....

International Relations and Security Network (ISN)

The aim of intelligence analysis is straightforward enough: to foresee emerging threats to the extent that one can prepare sufficiently in advance to either prevent or at least mitigate them. Research lies at the core of this enterprise in forecasting risk, whether via classified or unclassified data. But at a time when open source information is exponentially increasing in direct proportion to levels of uncertainty, how such foresight is conducted and by whom has become a key concern.

In 2011, the US government took a bold step in attempting to address those concerns. The Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (or IARPA, a division of the Office of the Director of National intelligence) invested in a four-year exploration of the underpinnings of better foresight analysis. Known as the Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) program, the initiative used a tournament originally consisting of five teams of forecasters to determine which individuals were most adept at forecasting future geopolitical outcomes and which traits shaped the best. Investigators and observers alike were surprised by the tournament’s results.

Executive Gov

The Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity is inviting potential proposers on the Crowdsourcing Evidence, Argumentation, Thinking and Evaluation program to attend a Proposers’ Day conference on June 30.


WHAT: A plan to harness the crowd to improve evaluation and analysis.

WHY: The intelligence community is looking to improve its analytical capabilities via a new program called CREATE, short for Crowdsourcing Evidence, Argumentation, Thinking and Evaluation. CREATE is in its vague, pre-solicitation infancy, but basically the intelligence community's internal skunkworks IARPA is hoping to establish a structured method of assessing ideas across disciplines, forming arguments and counterarguments, and develop a platform for crowdsourcing the development and refining of arguments.


Quantum computing has taken a step closer with two recent announcements demonstrating methods for error correction in addition to a new scalable design for quantum circuits based on a lattice structure. The research, published earlier this month in the journal Nature Communications, lays out plans for overcoming some of the most significant technological roadblocks preventing quantum computing from reaching its full potential. The work at IBM was funded in part by the US IARPA (Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity) multi-qubit-coherent-operations program.