How I Became a Superforecaster

 

Slate

I have seen the future, and that’s official. The Good Judgment Project, a 5-year-old government-funded exercise...After that last debacle became apparent in the post-invasion years, a branch of the IC, the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity, agreed to fund a number of private researchers to run tournaments that enlisted volunteers to do their best to answer fairly tricky questions about future world events.*