Forecasting Significant Societal Events Using The Embers Streaming Predictive Analytics System
Anticipatory intelligence is considered to be one of the next frontiers of “big data” research, wherein myriad data streams are fused together to generate predictions of critical societal events. One of the promising themes in this space is the idea of harnessing open-source datasets to identify threats and support decision making for national security, law enforcement, and intelligence missions. Early Model Based Event Recognition using Surrogates (EMBERS) is an anticipatory intelligence system for forecasting socially significant population-level events, such as civil unrest incidents, disease outbreaks, and election outcomes, on the basis of publicly available data. EMBERS is supported by the Intelligence Advanced Research Project Activity (IARPA) Open Source Indicators (OSI) program.