We’re on a mission to improve the accuracy and timeliness of geopolitical forecasting.
Are you up for the challenge?
Geopolitical Forecasting Challenge 2 encourages novel approaches that embrace non-traditional methods and harnesses the collective community, while offering Solvers the chance to win a share of $250,000 in prize money.
The collective effort of GF Challenge 2 stimulates breakthroughs in the science of forecasting, leading to greater strategic advantages for maintaining global security, predicting economic trends, and directing the need for humanitarian efforts.
Individuals and teams earn prizes by creating methods that can successfully forecast a wide variety of global events, such as political elections, disease outbreaks, and macro-economic indicators. Solvers have access to a state-of-the-art stream of data from hundreds of human forecasters and are encouraged to add their own sources and models to generate innovative, programmatic solutions.
Which political party will win the most seats during the Polish Parliamentary Election?
What will be the daily closing price of gold in June 2019 in USD?
Will there be a locally-transmitted case of the Zika virus in Brazil in July 2019?
How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in August 2019?
Solvers will create innovative solutions and methods to produce forecasts to a set of more than 300
questions referred to as Individual Forecasting Problems (IFPs), released regularly over the course
of the nine-month Challenge. Each IFP includes a set of exhaustive and mutually exclusive response
options, as well as firm resolution criteria. IFPs remain open until a final specified closing date
or until the event defined in the IFP is reported as occurring.
A continuously updated stream of probabilistic forecasts from human forecasters in JSON format will be provided to Solvers which can be used to generate solutions, and Solvers are encouraged to use their own data and models to supplement their forecasts. As long as an IFP is open, Solvers can continue to update their forecast for that question.
The administration of the Challenge is automated and secured through an API that provides the forecasting questions and individual human forecasts and receives forecast submissions, so having at least one team member with programming or developer skills is essential for participation.
Solvers will use two separate platforms to participate in the Challenge. Teams or individuals must register and create accounts on both the HeroX and Cultivate Labs platforms.
Scores will be calculated using the Brier Score, which incorporates both forecast accuracy and confidence. Each Solver will be permitted to submit forecasts using up to 40 different methodological “slots,” each of which will be scored independently. For more detailed information regarding scoring and an explanation of the Brier Score calculation, read the Judging and Scoring Criteria section in the Challenge Rules Document on the HeroX platform.
Solvers must be 18 years of age and over to participate in this Challenge. Some individuals or organizations may not be eligible for monetary prizes. However, these Solvers may, upon IARPA approval, participate in the Challenge and be eligible for ranking on the leaderboard. For the complete set of rules and eligibility guidelines, as well as instructions for getting approval, read the Challenge Rules Document on the HeroX platform.
Register on HeroX as an individual Solver or Solver Team. You can create or join a team later.
Register with Cultivate Labs and acquire your API token. Via the API, Solvers will receive all Individual Forecasting Problems (IFPs) and a continuously updating human forecaster data stream.
Using any combination of the provided stream of individual forecasts, publicly available data and information, as well as your own data sources and models, forecast the outcomes of IFPs, updating your forecasts daily via the API, based on new information.
10 Awards of $750
10 Awards of $750
10 Awards of $750
Up to 5 Awards of $2,500 each
The following resources have been compiled to help familiarize Solvers with geopolitical forecasting, scoring, and the platform for the Challenge. These resources are intended to serve as examples of relevant background materials, and identification here does not constitute a recommendation from IARPA to purchase any for-pay services related to these resources.