We’re on a mission to improve the accuracy and timeliness of geopolitical forecasting.
Are you up for the challenge?

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Geopolitical Forecasting Challenge 2 encourages novel approaches that embrace non-traditional methods and harnesses the collective community, while offering Solvers the chance to win a share of $250,000 in prize money.

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Challenge Overview

The collective effort of GF Challenge 2 stimulates breakthroughs in the science of forecasting, leading to greater strategic advantages for maintaining global security, predicting economic trends, and directing the need for humanitarian efforts.


Individuals and teams earn prizes by creating methods that can successfully forecast a wide variety of global events, such as political elections, disease outbreaks, and macro-economic indicators. Solvers have access to a state-of-the-art stream of data from hundreds of human forecasters and are encouraged to add their own sources and models to generate innovative, programmatic solutions.

Challenge Details

Solvers will create innovative solutions and methods to produce forecasts to a set of more than 300 questions referred to as Individual Forecasting Problems (IFPs), released regularly over the course of the nine-month Challenge. Each IFP includes a set of exhaustive and mutually exclusive response options, as well as firm resolution criteria. IFPs remain open until a final specified closing date or until the event defined in the IFP is reported as occurring.

A continuously updated stream of probabilistic forecasts from human forecasters in JSON format will be provided to Solvers which can be used to generate solutions, and Solvers are encouraged to use their own data and models to supplement their forecasts. As long as an IFP is open, Solvers can continue to update their forecast for that question.

The administration of the Challenge is automated and secured through an API that provides the forecasting questions and individual human forecasts and receives forecast submissions, so having at least one team member with programming or developer skills is essential for participation.


API Provided: IPPs, Human Data Stream API Provided: IPPs, Human Data Stream - mobile Arrows indicating movement from step 1 to step 2 Solver Provided: Data Sources, Forecasting Models Solver Provided: Data Sources, Forecasting Models - mobile Arrows indicating movement from step 2 to step 3 Daily Updated Forecast: Solver Submitted via API Daily Updated Forecast: Solver Submitted via API - mobile

More Challenge Info

Solvers will use two separate platforms to participate in the Challenge. Teams or individuals must register and create accounts on both the HeroX and Cultivate Labs platforms.

HeroX Platform Logo
  • Initial Registration InlcudedInitial Registration
  • Ongoing Challenge Updates IncludedOngoing Challenge Updates
  • Community Forum IncludedCommunity Forum
  • Complete Challenge DetailsIncludedComplete Challenge Details
  • Rules, Regulations, and FAQsIncludedRules, Regulations, & FAQs
Cultivated Labs Platform Logo
  • API Token Registration IncludedAPI Token Registration
  • Pull IPFs IncludedPull IPFs
  • Pull Human Forecaster Data Stream IncludedPull Human Forecaster Data Stream
  • Push Forecasts IncludedPush Forecasts
  • Challenge Leadeboards IncludedChallenge Leaderboard

Scoring

Scores will be calculated using the Brier Score, which incorporates both forecast accuracy and confidence. Each Solver will be permitted to submit forecasts using up to 40 different methodological “slots,” each of which will be scored independently. For more detailed information regarding scoring and an explanation of the Brier Score calculation, read the Judging and Scoring Criteria section in the Challenge Rules Document on the HeroX platform.

Rules

Solvers must be 18 years of age and over to participate in this Challenge. Some individuals or organizations may not be eligible for monetary prizes. However, these Solvers may, upon IARPA approval, participate in the Challenge and be eligible for ranking on the leaderboard. For the complete set of rules and eligibility guidelines, as well as instructions for getting approval, read the Challenge Rules Document on the HeroX platform.

Getting Started

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Sign Up

Register on HeroX as an individual Solver or Solver Team. You can create or join a team later.

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Connect to the Cultivate API

Register with Cultivate Labs and acquire your API token. Via the API, Solvers will receive all Individual Forecasting Problems (IFPs) and a continuously updating human forecaster data stream.

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Configure Your API

Using any combination of the provided stream of individual forecasts, publicly available data and information, as well as your own data sources and models, forecast the outcomes of IFPs, updating your forecasts daily via the API, based on new information.

Prizes & Awards


+ BONUS

$120,000

First place prize of $45,000

$33,000

Second place prize of $30,000

$22,000

Third place prize of $2,000

$15,000

Fourth place prize of $15,000

$10,000

Fifth place prize of $10,000

$7,500


Milestone Prizes

Milestone One prize of $7,500

Milestone one

$7,500

10 Awards of $750

Milestone Two prize of $7,500

Milestone two

$7,500

10 Awards of $750

Milestone Three prize of $7,500

Milestone three

$7,500

10 Awards of $750


Other Prizes

Best academic prize of $10,000

Academic Award

$7,500

Workshop Presenter prize of $12,500

Workshop presenter

$12,500

Up to 5 Awards of $2,500 each

Links