Forecasting Science & Technology (ForeST)

The goal of the ForeST Program is to develop and test methods for generating accurate forecasts for significant science and technology (S&T) milestones, by combining the judgments of many experts. The ForeST Program seeks technical innovations in the following areas: a) efficient elicitation and aggregation of judgments using combinatorial prediction markets; b) generation of S&T forecasting questions from indicators within the scientific and patent literatures; c) methods for crowdsourcing question development and resolution with over 10,000 scientists and engineers, globally. As part of this program, ForeST-funded researchers manage the world’s largest S&T forecasting tournament, www.SciCast.org, generating public forecasts for hundreds of real-world S&T events. The ForeST Program directly leverages the programmatic and technical achievements of IARPA’s ACE and FUSE programs.

Related Program(s)

Research Area(s)

  • Forecasting
  • Human judgment
  • Machine learning
  • Technical emergence
  • Text analytics
  • Big data
  • Natural language processing

Related Publications

To access ForeST program-related publications, please enter the following into a Google Scholar search query: "D11PC20062 OR D11PC20154 OR D11PC20155"

Related Article(s)