Forecasting Science & Technology (ForeST)

Program Manager

Jason Matheny

Program Office

Office of Incisive Analysis

Program Information


The goal of the ForeST Program is to develop and test methods for generating accurate forecasts for significant science and technology (S&T) milestones, by combining the judgments of many experts. The ForeST Program seeks technical innovations in the following areas: a) efficient elicitation and aggregation of judgments using combinatorial prediction markets; b) generation of S&T forecasting questions from indicators within the scientific and patent literatures; c) methods for crowdsourcing question development and resolution with over 10,000 scientists and engineers, globally. As part of this program, ForeST-funded researchers manage the world’s largest S&T forecasting tournament,, generating public forecasts for hundreds of real-world S&T events. The ForeST Program directly leverages the programmatic and technical achievements of IARPA’s ACE and FUSE programs.

Related Program(s)

Research Area(s)

  • Forecasting
  • Human judgment
  • Machine learning
  • Technical emergence
  • Text analytics
  • Big data
  • Natural language processing

Related Publications

To access ForeST program-related publications, please enter the following into a Google Scholar search query: "D11PC20062 OR D11PC20154 OR D11PC20155"

Related Article(s)